December 6, 2000
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Through the Looking Glass

"The accelerating comet symbolizes the sum total of the light sword technology of today's information age. Data is digitized to be borne so swiftly on beams of light, and then through the curious prism of the looking glass, will explode in the rainbowed consumer demand for technicolored expression."

Those fevered words were composed by this writer for a speech we delivered in May of 1988 to a group of small commercial printers assembled in Convention in balmy San Diego, California. The other week, our good friend Sandra Hubbard, publisher/editor of The Printer's NW Trader asked us to compose a brief article prognosticating the future of the printing industry. (Closed circuit to Sandy -- we are working on it! 800 words of fearless fortune telling.)

What we find interesting, is that back in 1988, it was easy to see that digital mania would sweep the industry and that every client would want more and more colour in their printed pieces. Twelve years ago, we could "see clearly now."

Today, the future may not be so clear. And in fact, may simply seem curiouser and curiouser.

This week, a gentleman who works for Xerox Canada asked that we send him TMN. His title is 'Virtual Sales Executive.' Is that a trend? Will the Internet take out the costs of the face to face sales call?

In September, we attended a wonderful Des Moines Club monthly meeting and visited there with a fellow who taught us the art of press operation in the real world of alka seltzered fountain solutions. Having built a very successful printing business over the past two decades, he had just sold it Among the anecdotes of the changing industry he could foresee from his perch in the heartland of Mid-America, was the loss of several printed association newsletters. Whereas once the pork producers of central Iowa might have printed their newsletter, those publications had migrated to the Internet, erasing a reliable and predictable stream of revenue. Is that a trend?

Another fellow we know is restructuring his printing business after learning a painful lesson involving decentralized sales outlets and centralized press production (sell in many locales, print in only one.) His General and Administrative costs, and especially his labour costs, were off the charts. Red ink has been gushing from his P & L. He had been given rummy advice. Simple solutions like moving all presses under one roof may have unintended and seriously unprofitable consequences. Is that a trend?

Still another loyal reader of TMN sent us a thoughtful note the other day suggesting that a trend that seemed so obvious only a year ago, may already be at least partly de-bunked. He had worked for one of the highly touted Consolidators which was now in the throes of its own restructuring. He had moved on. His pithy quote: 'I decided not to become shelfware (take the money and do nothing.)' Is that a trend, is Consolidation not the one true religion for the future?

What is clear, once we take these darn tri-focals off our beak, is that choices about which path to take are now so many as to muddle the most single minded soul. When Frost suggested in his famous line that choosing a certain path can make all the difference, he seemed to posit an either/or scenario. For you, gentle reader, the choices are abundant, and the visibility seems low.

Therefore, let's make TMN, near the end of the millennial beginning (or end:) interactive. Tell us what you think are three trends for 2001 and beyond. We will share them with everyone in the next issue.

We know you have strong feelings and profound thoughts as we hear from so many of you after each virtual version of TMN hits the cyber streets. Give us a thought or three and folks on six continents will ruminate with you. Thank you in advance!

After our glowing endorsement of the PODi article titled "Trends that will Change the Business of Print," dozens upon dozens of our TMN readers around the globe have asked for the URL. The folks at PODi have made mention of our endorsement on their website: www.podi.org So, one final time, we state that everyone should take the time to read an article offering clearheaded analysis of three key convergences:

1) The Convergence of print technologies (digital, conventional offset and ink-jet).

2) The Convergence of graphic arts with photo printing and transaction printing.

3) The Convergence of print and online documents.

If you want the URL to the article, just e-mail Lesley Addy of our HQ staff (laddy1069@aol.com) and she will get you there.

A Trend Troika -- a shift, a hoot and making peace with the future

1) What Formula for Forms?

We have often commented in the pages of TMN upon the future prospects for the printing of business forms, check printing and the like. Thus it was really intriguing to read an insider trading report indicating that the Chairman of Deluxe Corporation had recently sold tens of thousands of shares in that company, and was left owning a mere fraction -in fact, less than 1,000 shares. And of course, it goes without saying that any individual has the right to buy or sell shares for whatever private purpose, but still ....

The VISION 21 report from PIA was released this quarter and already several IAPHC chapters have heard presentations outlining the findings. When it comes to business forms, the study was matter-of-fact:

"Shipments of business forms have been declining for years. Projections call for business form shipments to decline by 5.7% per year from 2000 to 2003 and by 3.5% per year from 2004 to 2006, with the slowing decline reflecting that core products are becoming less replaceable by electronic substitutes.

Business forms printing provides a textbook case study of how an industry must adapt to change. Commercial printers in other segments can learn much by reviewing the coping strategies adopted by forms printers and distributors during the past decade. Such printers often entered into related document management service markets or other print market segments."

The British trade journal Printing World wrote about forms and the future in the current issue: "A recent report from the Rochester Institute of Technology called 'Printing in the Age of the Web and Beyond' predicted that forms will increasingly be backed up by electronic records. These backups will soon take over from the printed form entirely. In terms of paper tonnage in the US., the report foretells that forms and other types of office print will fall from nearly 3 millions tonnes a year now, to just 700,000 tonnes in 2020."

Trendy observation: once again, we refer you to that wise IAPHC member-at-large Dick Lunde: Printers must begin to think of documents as dynamic documents; not static ones, but living, variable, ever changing dynamic things.

2) Roots, Hoots and Soap Operas

If you have been around small commercial printing for the past decade or so, you have been familiar with super-large format color printers that do a remarkable job, with tremendous color fidelity. There are many vendors in that space, but one in particular, has been a fun saga to follow. LaserMaster Technologies started off with large format black toner laser printers and then moved into the even larger color printer market to go head to head with Hewlett Packard et al. Most users were fairly happy with the LaserMaster products, both black and white, and color.

The founder of LaserMaster is a unique character named Mel Masters. Reportedly, he changed his legal moniker from Melvin Newsome to Mel Masters once LaserMaster found its sea legs. He was given to 'business as war' metaphors, and was not above urging his troops to gallantly follow him into the valley of death.

Late in 1998, LaserMaster announced it was changing its corporate name to VirtualFund.com

Then in late 1999 it began a much ballyhoohawed e-commerce adventure called B2BXchange. Apparently believing in the promise of e-commerce and the virtual bazaar, the firm sold its color printer business in June of 2000 for a bit less than $50 million. At several junctures during the past 5 months VirtualFund employees, including possibly one Mel Masters using the handle melVFND, began to tout its business to business strategy on Yahoo's investor message boards.

Things have gotten progressively wackier. On 22 November, some but not all of the Board members of VirtualFund.com voted to remove Mr. Masters from day to day authority and even changed the locks on the company offices. On 5 December the same partial Board group appointed outside consultants to conduct investigations of the firms e-business operations.

Meanwhile, back on the Yahoo message Boards some disgruntled shareholders have created a message posting thread with the delicious title: "VFND - A Miniseries."

Stay tuned, there's a lesson in their somewhere. And maybe a pony too.

Trendy observation - the path to e-commerce enlightenment will be a zigzaggy rockstrewn one, with a sharp precipice edged switchback encountered just to keep your adrenaline flowing.

3) A Separate Peace

A fine book about the journey from callow youth to imminent adulthood. And one supposedly based on the Robert F. Kennedy's best prep school buddy. And by any measure, a book. A book is a book is a book.

And then they invented e-books.

The last of our troika of trends seeks to find peace amidst the disruptive changes wrought by the advent of e-books.

IAPHC member-at-large Judy Cochrane sent an e-mail urging us to check out a website for a firm based in Boulder Colorado which is called netlibrary.com

We did as suggested, and agree with Judy's assessment: "An awesome way to keep libraries current for research, without shelving, cataloguing or losing 'real' books." Take the time to visit www.netlibrary.com

Two recent announcements show that hard copy books are morphing as well. (Dynamic Books?)

>From Calgary, Alberta comes word that local firm Blitzprint is the first Canadian company to put the Xerox Digipath Book Factory technology to work in the print for pay segment. Run lengths can go up to 1,000 copies, but the company president and CEO, Kevin Lanuke thinks even those clients who just need a few copies of a book, professionally printed and bound, will use his service.

>From Herzlyia, Israel on 27 November - Scitex announced that it had joined the venture investors who are backing Printlife, a startup firm hatching a method to create personalized hard cover photo albums from digital images printed on Indigo digital presses.

Trendy observation: just as e-books can be seen as a supplement to hard copy books, and not a subversive force to supplant the printed version; so too conventional printers will need to embrace new and disruptive technologies even while conventional printing continues to pay the bills.

Make your own peace with the dementia of digital, dear friends, it's here to stay!

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